Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt: A rough analysis

Which of these two stars in the MLB has a better legacy? Who would you take to your Fantasy Team? Let's examine both of them in fine detail to find out.

One thing that struck me as a baseball fan over the last 10 years: the dominance and consistency of Goldschmidt and Freeman. Both played similar roles as dominating 1st basemen and three-hole hitters in both of their teams. They also made their debuts in the 2011 season. In that season, Freddie Freeman ended up as the runner-up to the RoY winner, Craig Kimbrel, while Goldschmidt was still vying for an opener spot. Fast forward a few years and both are perennial stars in their leagues. Coincidentally, both also ended up as Silver Slugger Finalists and I would always remember, living in Georgia, the outcry of Braves fans when Goldschmidt would win the Silver Slugger instead of Freddie Freeman. As a result of this, I became curious and wondered who is the better player since they always seem to be neck-and-neck to each other.

When grading the following players, I will award three points based on the following categories: the past, the present, and the future in order to indicate who I think is the best and who I think will flourish later in their careers. The past and present seem pretty self-explanatory: the past describes their past stats while the present describes their current status in the 2019 season. Finally, the future describes their Statcast data and what it means for them in the future (whether they will under-preform or over-perform based on what is expected). Of course, statistics are not 100% accurate, but noticing these trends will help us evaluate who is the best player.

So Let’s start analyzing!

THE PAST

First, let us start off with the hitting capabilities. Freeman, from 2011 to 2019, has put up impressive numbers, posting a statline of .295/.380/.505 and a WAR of 33.7 (according to FanGraphs). He has been voted to the All-Star 3X and has won only 1 Gold Glove. On the other hand, Goldschmidt has put up a more impressive statline during this time period, hitting .295/.394/.525 and a WAR of 37.0 (according to FanGraphs) in addition to 4 silver slugger awards, 6 all star appearances, and 3 Gold Gloves appearances. Just looking at these stats makes it seems that Goldschmidt is the better player overall, but we cannot jump to conclusions yet. We will be examining more stats later to see.

Hitting

The first statistic that I would like to go over would be OBP since a player’s ability to get on base is always a good thing (more runners means more runs and a lower chance of getting an out). Taking a look at their OBP over the seasons, Goldschmidt has averaged an OBP of 0.391 while Freeman has averaged an OBP of 0.379. Yet, Freeman has a more consistent performance concerning this statistic as his deviation is 0.023 as opposed to Goldschmidt’s, which is 0.029.

Taking a look at their wOBA and wRC+ over 2011-2018, we can see that Goldschmidt has a better average wOBA and wRC+ over Freeman from 2011- 2018 (.389 wOBA over .375 wOBA and 142 wRC+ over 137 wRC+). As a result, we can generally say that Paul Goldschmidt proves to be the better hitter. Both of them have similar standard deviations of their wOBA although we can say that Goldschmidt has the slightly more consistent hitting record, having a deviation of 0.021 as opposed to .022 deviation from Freeman. Freddie Freeman also shows more consistent hitting in terms of wRC+ too, having a deviation of 13.09 as opposed to 14.88 from Goldschmidt.

Below is a chart detailing their wOBA and wRC+ over the seasons above.

An interesting thing to note from these graphs is that Goldschmidt has slightly been decreasing over the years while Freeman has been trending up. Although I will be discussing this later, I thought it would be important to note this out.

Looking at other advanced analytics, we can also see that Goldschmidt has contributed more towards offense than Freeman has. Looking at their wRAA (which should count for their runs contributed even with different playing times), Goldschmidt has a higher average of 36.71 while Freddie Freeman has an average of 30.16. However, similar to the wOBA and the wRC+ of both players, Freeman is the more consistent hitter, having a standard deviation of 11.43 while Goldschmidt has a deviation of 15.54. Both players don’t suffer from many injuries and none of them had a season-ending injury, adding to their asset as consistent players a franchise can build on.

This is great and all, but how will these runs contribute to the player’s ability to help the team win? Do not fear because there are also other statistics that add to this value as well. Casting a glance at their WPA and RE24 scores, we can see the win probability that each of the players add to their team as well as how the player helps contribute to score more runs. Looking at their WPA averages, Freeman contributes about 3.07 WPA score to his team while Goldschmidt contributes a 3.84 score although Goldschmidt has a higher deviation of 2.09 while Freeman has a deviation of 1.34. In addition, Goldschmidt’s RE24 average is 41.52 while Freeman’s is 35.29, but ,with all the statistics, Freeman’s deviation is much lower than Goldschmidt’s.

So who is the better hitter? In this case, I would take Goldschmidt as the better hitter as his stats have been higher overall even with the more consistent production of Freddie Freeman. The deviation from the average of Goldschmidt has not been that flagrant and most of the high deviation has been due to the MVP seasons that he posted during the 2015 season. Although Freddie Freeman started as a better hitter than Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Goldschmidt outshines him more during the regular season and as a result, I would have to give the credit to Paul Goldschmidt. He has contributed his team more not only in runs, but also helping his team scores more runs.

Defense and Running

There is not too much to talk about baserunning and defense since the plethora of offensive statistics have mainly to do with hitting. There are about 2-5 good defensive statistics that we can use, and as a result, we will mainly focus on those.

In terms of Defense, we are going to look at Defensive Runs Saved and their Ultimate Zone Rating from fangraphs since these are the two defensive metrics that the big two baseball statistic websites post (baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com). In terms of Defensive Runs Saved, Freddie Freeman averaged about 2.875 runs saved per season with a deviation of 5.95 while, on the other hand, Paul Goldschmidt averaged about 6.25 runs saved while posting a deviation of 6.55. In the Ultimate Zone Rating comparison, Freeman posted an average of 1.25 saved runs with a deviation of 6.284 while Goldschmidt posted an average of 1.3875 saved runs with a deviation of 2.46 per year. In both scenarios, Paul Goldschmidt clearly wins the battle of defenders, and this can be seen by the amount of gold gloves that he won during this time (3 Gold Gloves as opposed to 1).

In terms of base running, we will be using the BsR rating from Fangraphs since most of the advanced statistics that I use come from there. In terms of base running, Freeman has averaged to be a below average base runner with a BsR average score of -0.3 with a deviation of 2.53 while Goldschmidt has had better success running, posting a 2.78 BsR score along with a 1.84 deviation. Again, Goldschmidt seems to be the clear cut winner.

So when we finally examine the penultimate statistic that values the player’s performance, we can see that Goldschmidt takes the lead, averaging a WAR of 4.5 over 2011-18 with a deviation of 1.905 while Freddie Freeman averages a WAR of 3.85 over those years with a deviation of 1.747 for every season. While the hitting capabilities of both players might be very similar, Goldschmidt’s defense and running abilities has allowed him to be the clear-cut winner over Freddie Freeman in the past.

Verdict: Goldschmidt 1 Freeman 0

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Present:

As shown on the graphs and many major baseball websites, the past does not always equate to future success. It certainly doesn’t equate for Goldschmidt, whose first season with the Cardinals hasn’t sparked the dominance that he showed while playing in the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman has already won a starter position in the All-Star game and is looking like a top-7 MVP candidate. This year might not mean anything for the player’s future performance, but I am sure that we can see who is dominating the changing MLB league currently.

Keep in mind that the season is going on and that I got the 2019 statistics as of 6/25/2019 so if you try to look at the statistics yourself, it might not be the exact same since these players are always playing every single day.

Hitting

Like the past section, we are going to be looking at the same statistics that we did in the previous section to judge the players: OBP, wOBA, wRAA, wRC+, WPA, and RE24.

In terms of getting on-base, Freeman has done a much better job than Goldschmidt, posting a .402 OBP as opposed to a .345 OBP from Goldschmidt although Goldschmidt is right now going through a bit of a slump. If he heats up in the following months, we can see a considerable increase in his statistics later in the season. But, as of this date, Freeman takes the W for the OBP.

Casting a glance at the wOBA, wRAA, and the wRC+, we can see that Freeman has contributed much more in this situation, posting a wOBA of .415, a wRAA of 28.9, and a wRC+ of 156. This has certainly equated to him contributing his team more, posting a WPA of 2.97 and a RE24 of 36.75 during the 2019 season. On the other hand, Paul Goldschmidt has shown nothing of his past self, sticking with a meager .332 wOBA, a 3.5 wRAA, and an average 105 wRC+. This has led to a disappointing (at least for him) 1.6 WPA and 9.68 RE24.

(This is not really related but Goldschmidt has a higher Clutch score than Freddie Freeman meaning that in high leverage situations, Goldschmidt is more likely to put his team ahead).

Advantage Freeman.

Base Running and Defense

(I will be using the Defensive score from Fangraphs since I forgot to get the 2019 UZR scores. Although both are different, both are still sufficient for analysis since both talk about a player’s ability to save runs so it is not a problem.)

When looking at their defensive capabilities, they are much more similar and they do not have the polarizing gap between them when it came to hitting. Freddie Freeman so far has posted 3 DRS and a Defensive score of -8.1 while Goldschmidt has posted a 2 DRS and posts a -5 Defensive score (keeping in mind that First baseman have low Defensive scores compared to other more defensively demanding position such as SS).

In terms of their Base running abilities, Freeman has made himself a slightly better base runner this season although he is not known for being as good as a baserunner as Goldschmidt (0.6 vs 0.5 BsR scores as of 2019).

The slight defensive advantage and minor base running gap has not been enough to erase the huge hitting difference.To add on, Freeman has posted an impressive 2.9 WAR (according to Fangraphs) while Goldschmidt has posted a 0.8 WAR.

Verdict: Freeman 1 Goldschmidt 1

The Future

Although we do not know exactly how the players will fare in the following seasons and the rest of the 2019 season, we can analyze the Statcast data and the general trends from their statistics to see what the players are going to be.

In terms of Statcast data, we will be mainly looking at exit velocity and xwOBA and Hard Hit % since those stats will tell us whether a player will be likely to be better in the future or not (because the harder a player hits the baseball the more likely it will be a hit) .

Other statistics that we will be mentioning are the LD%, BB%, K%, Pull%, and etc. for further analysis.

Hitting

Let’s get rid of the most rudimentary stuff and let us examine the BB% of Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt. When analyzing a future player’s performance, we will be more focused on the trend that each of the graphs follow and what it will mean if these trends continue.

Here are the graphs for BB% and K% of both players.

Although Goldschmidt may have a more favorable BB% right now than Freddie Freeman, Freeman’s BB% has been gradually increasing at a higher rate than Goldschmidt. Based on the data above, I think Freeman will eventually have a higher walking percentage as he ages. As we can see in the graphs, the line of best fit shows that the gap between them is decreasing every year, giving signs that Freeman will progressively be more valuable to get on base than Goldschmidt.

When it comes to K% too, Freeman takes the victory here. Although both players don’t strike out as much as many other hitters in this strikeout-dominant era of baseball, Goldschmidt’s K% has mainly stayed stagnant throughout most of his career. However, Freeman has actually improved his K% by decreasing it throughout the course of his career and it seems likely that he will continue this trend throughout his career, leaving Goldschmidt back behind Freeman.

Now that we got that out of the way, we can start analyzing more Statcast data such as Exit Velocity, Barrel%, and xwOBA.

Here are the graphs for all of the statistics mentioned above.

Freeman has the higher average when it comes to Barrel % and xwOBA, having a 12.54% and a .408 rate respectively, very respectable for a high-caliber player. Despite these grand numbers from Freeman’s statcast data, Goldschmidt also posts great numbers as well, posting a .382 xwOBA average and 11.14% barrel rate while beating Freeman’s average exit velocity (91.08 over 90.38). Despite these great statistics, Freeman’s trend in all of the statcast data seems to be favorable over Goldschmidt, who has a general trend of decreasing in all of his statistics.

(Especially exit velocity in which Paul Goldschmidt’s exit velocity has been surprisingly decreasing rapidly from the time Statcast started).

If these trends were to continue over time, I would assume that Freeman would eventually take the favorable advantage over Goldschmidt even if both players regress over time.

Although Freeman took a step back last season, he bounced back this season, allowing him to gain favorable edge over Goldschmidt when it comes to these trends.

The last three statistics that we will be analyzing are the Hard Hit% and the LD% of both players, showing their ability to see how much power they have and their hand-eye coordination.

Here are the graphs below for the 2 statistics.

One thing that I think both players will develop similarly is the Hard Hit% since both of the lines of best fit virtually look the same although Goldschmidt has a higher Hard Hit% average per season (42.27% vs 40.12%). Once they get older and regress due to old age, their trends might be different, but one is currently under his prime while the other has just passed his prime age. As a result, I do not expect their hard hit % change for another 2 or 3 years.

However, when we are examining their LD% every season, the line of best fit tells another trend of both players. Freeman has been increasing his LD % over the years while Paul Goldschmidt has stayed relatively stagnant over the years. More line drives correspond with better hitting contact, so, as a result, I would expect Freeman to have the more favorable offensive statistics over the next few seasons even if they have similar Hard Hit%.

(With Defense, there are not really any metrics that I would use in order to measure their defensive ability since most first baseman are already bad defensively compared to other players.)

For base running, we will only be looking at the sprint speed since the quicker a player is going to be, the more likely it is for the player to advance more bases. While Freddie Freeman’s sprint speed has been increasing, Paul Goldschmidt’s sprint speed is going to decrease since he is aging and is older than Freeman.

Here is the graph of the Sprint Speed of both players.

One thing to point out is that Freeman is currently peaking around 26.5 - 26.7 while Goldschmidt peaked around 27.4 in sprinting speed. As a result, Goldschmidt has the slightly higher average when it comes to sprint speed (26.92 over 26.32). However, I expect Freeman after three years to decrease his sprint speed after peaking at the speed I mentioned above while Goldschmidt is going to continue to decrease his sprinting speed while he ages.

As we have seen in all of the graphs, we saw that Paul Goldschmidt is most likely going to regress over the years as his prime has passed while Freddie Freeman is looking like to win a few awards and maybe even an MVP. Although Freddie Freeman may look better than Goldschmidt based on the projections that we saw, we cannot assume that Goldschmidt

won’t perform that great in the future. But we have to award the point to Freeman right now.

Verdict: Freeman 2 Goldschmidt 1

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The Verdict:

Both Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt are phenomenal players: they have been here for many years and continue to play at an elite all-star level. We should all praise their efforts to make it to the MLB and become a superstar because so many people fail to accomplish these dreams, yet the two of these players have done it. However, there can only be one victor from this duel of who is the better player. Although we have awarded Freeman the winner, the winner is different to everybody depending on the criteria that people put it against. In my opinion, I think that both players represent the paragons of 1st base in different ages. Goldschmidt represented the time between 2013-2018 (roughly) and Freeman is now leading the charge as the next exemplary 1st baseman as Goldschmidt passes the torch to Freeman. Of course, there are other great 1st baseman in the league right and we should not discredit those hitters such as Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell.

Created June 29, 2019. Published 04/03/20.